Leafs Notes: 2021-22 Season Preview

(Photo: Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to bounce back from yet another disappointing first-round playoff exit in last year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. The team finished as the top seed in the re-aligned North Division, but they couldn’t beat the Montreal Canadiens in the postseason. The postseason has not been friendly to the Leafs the past few years, as they’ve exited them in the first round. The Leafs are hoping that this is the year that the team can make it past the first round of the playoffs.

The Leafs had a pretty decent offseason signing a lot of depth players on cap friendly deals. The team has a lot of money wrapped up in the core players, and couldn’t make a big move without moving one of them. The contracts are not cap friendly, so they could be hard to move now and down the line with the flat cap. The additions included goaltender Petr Mrazek, and forwards Ondrej Kase and David Kampf to name a few players. They did lose Frederik Andersen, Zach Bogosian and Nick Foligno among others. Now the biggest question is can this core manage to get past the first round of the postseason?

The Maple Leafs roster has been set for the season, and there is a surprise or two among the forwards. Ilya Mikeyev injured his finger late in preseason, and is expected to be long-term. Michael Amadio made the team over Adam Brooks, who was lost after being placed on waivers. Michael Bunting, a free agent signing, also had a decent camp and is on the Open Night roster. There is decent size among the forward group, and the Maple Leafs will be able to put a balanced lineup on the ice. 

The forward group is a combination of skilled and gritty players, who have some speed. There are some question marks like Amadio and Bunting, but those questions should be answered early, and there is other depth in the organization. The forwards do lack physicality, but have a ton of skill that can be used for scoring or playmaking. The forwards are mostly veteran players, who can help the younger players should they struggle.

The Leafs’ failed to improve the defense and that could cost them some games and points this season. The team still lacks a number one defenseman, and are relying on the same group from last season. The group is on the smaller side, but they can eat up minutes. Justin Holl and TJ Brodie are more of the stay-at-home defensemen, as they block shots, and don’t take too many chances in the offensive zone.Travis Dermott will likely be on the third pairing and can occasionally get on the board in the offensive zone.

Morgan Rielly is a decent all-around defenseman, but he isn’t the number one guy that the Leafs need on the blue line. He will contribute on the offensive side of the puck, and can be the quarterback on the first power play unit. Rielly is solid in his own zone but can be caught out of position from time-to-time. Jake Muzzin brings some physicality and shot blocking to the blue line. He can also put up some points, if needed.

The Leafs power play finished in the middle of the pack last season and that isn’t good enough considering the talent that they have on the first power play unit alone. Players like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Rielly, who bring a ton of skill to the power play. The penalty kill needs to improve this season for the Maple Leafs to have a chance at finishing in a playoff position. The penalty kill was not good last season, but it should improve as I’m looking for the goalies to make some saves that need to be made.

I’m looking for Kase to surprise some people in Toronto this season. Yes, he is injury-prone, but he got through camp and preseason healthy. If he can stay healthy then he could have a good season.  Kase should get third line minutes, and that should help him to stay healthy, while still getting his chances. He can set up teammates or score goals, which will help with his point production. I think Kase stays healthy this season and scores at least 20 goals for the Leafs. 

Wayne Simmonds should have a bounce back season for the Maple Leafs. He only played in 38 games last season and had seven goals, two assists and nine points. He is on the decline and will likely play fourth line minutes, but if he is used right, he should be able to pitch in 10-15 goals. The best way to use him is to stick him in front of the net on the power play and let him go to work.  If the defensemen can get the shot on net, then Simmonds can be ithere looking for the deflection or rebound chance.

Alex Kerfoot has a chance to have a breakout season since he could be playing top six minutes. He’ll likely begin playing third line minutes, but if Auston Matthews misses any time, he could be moved up into the top six. While with the Leafs he hasn’t amassed more than 30 points in either of the two seasons, but when playing for the Colorado Avalanche, Kerfoot managed two 40-plus point seasons. The talent level is also different than what he played with while with the Avalanche. If he’s put in the right spot with the right players then he can have a breakout season.

Leafs’ head coach Sheldon Keefe is under pressure this season . I know that this is his first real training camp and preseason, but the Leafs haven’t gotten past the qualifying or first round of the postseason in his two seasons. The core is comprised of veteran players so they should know his system, and know what he expects out of them. If the team fails to make a deep postseason run then you could see Keefe on the hot seat or gone this summer.

The defense is going to be the key to the team’s success this season. While the offense is going to produce and put pucks in the net, the defense still lacks a true number one defenseman. The defense is going to have to be a team effort with the forwards buying in and getting back to help out. As a group, the defense can move the puck and get involved in the offense, but they need to be smart and avoid turnovers and mistakes. Opposing teams will take advantage of those turnovers and mistakes which will lead to scoring chances and goals.

Mrazek and Jack Campbell are going to be the Leafs’ x-factor for the 2021-22 season. The goalies have to come ready to play and stay healthy. The duo need to make sure that they make saves and not give up easy goals because the defense will give up some chances and leave them out to dry. Campbell will need to prove that he can be a number one goaltender since I don’t trust Mrazek as a number one, but he is a decent backup goalie. 

I’m predicting that the Maple Leafs make the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and make it out of the first round. Marner and Matthews will have monster seasons, and finally make it into the second round. The Leafs will hit the wall in the second round and the goalies will struggle ending Toronto’s season. It will be an interesting season especially seeing if Campbell can take over the net, or if Mrazek has to step up for the team.